Vietnam Coffee Season 2026: Harvest Time, Production and Price Outlook
The Vietnam coffee season 2026 is entering a crucial period as Vietnam officially moves into the 2026/27 coffee crop year from October 2026. However, the beginning of a new crop year does not mean that coffee supply will immediately increase sharply. Harvesting activities in the Central Highlands are only beginning, and significant volumes of new coffee are expected to enter the market from November onward.
According to the latest USDA forecast, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2026/27 crop year could reach 32.5 million 60-kg bags, including 31.4 million bags of Robusta and approximately 1.1 million bags of Arabica. This is an important basis for assessing supply, exports, and Vietnam coffee price trends during the final months of 2026 and the beginning of 2027.
When Does the Vietnam Coffee Season 2026 Begin?
When searching for information about the “Vietnam coffee season 2026,” coffee farmers, traders, and businesses are often most interested in one question: When does the coffee harvest begin?
According to the coffee industry's crop-year calendar, Vietnam's 2026/27 coffee marketing year begins in October 2026. The USDA also uses October as the starting month for Vietnam's coffee Marketing Year.
However, it is important to distinguish between:
The beginning of the crop year ≠ the entire coffee crop being harvested immediately in October.
In reality, early October marks the beginning of the harvest season. New coffee supplies do not enter the market in large volumes immediately. Traders expect new-crop supplies to increase more noticeably from November 2026, as harvesting activities in major growing regions enter their peak period.
This distinction is important when analyzing coffee prices during the 2026 crop season because the market often reacts in advance to supply expectations, while actual physical coffee supplies require more time to reach the market.
Vietnam Coffee Season 2026 Harvest Calendar by Stage
The Vietnam 2026/27 coffee season can generally be understood through the following cycle:
The exact timing may vary depending on the province, altitude, coffee variety, weather conditions, and the ripeness of the coffee cherries.
In the area covered by the Buon Ma Thuot geographical indication, regulations governing Robusta coffee specify a harvest period from October to December, while also requiring multiple harvesting rounds and prioritizing cherries with at least two-thirds of the fruit skin showing ripeness.
How Does the 2026 Coffee Harvest Take Place in Vietnam's Central Highlands?
The Central Highlands remains the most important coffee-growing region in Vietnam, particularly for Robusta production.
However, the harvest period is not exactly the same across all provinces.
In general:
- Gia Lai and Kon Tum: approximately October–December.
- Dak Lak: approximately November–December.
- Dak Nong: generally beginning around November.
- Lam Dong: harvesting may continue into January of the following year.
- Some Arabica-growing areas: the harvest period may occur later.
These dates are only general guidelines because weather conditions and the actual ripeness of the cherries are the main factors determining when harvesting should take place.
For high-quality coffee, harvesting at the right level of ripeness is particularly important. Harvesting too early can affect bean quality, while leaving cherries overripe or allowing them to fall can also increase the risk of quality deterioration after harvest.
How Much Coffee Will Vietnam Produce in the 2026/27 Crop Year?
This is one of the most important factors when evaluating the Vietnam coffee season 2026.
According to the USDA Coffee Annual 2026 report, Vietnam's coffee production for the 2026/27 crop year is forecast at:
32.5 million 60-kg bags, equivalent to approximately 1.95 million metric tons of green coffee.
Of this total:
Compared with the USDA estimate of 31.7 million bags for the 2025/26 crop year, total production in 2026/27 is expected to increase by approximately 800,000 bags.
Robusta production alone is forecast to rise from 30.5 million bags to 31.4 million bags.
This is a significant figure because Vietnam continues to play a particularly important role in global Robusta supply.
Why Could Vietnam's Coffee Production Increase in the 2026 Season?
The USDA expects 2026/27 production to be supported by an expansion in harvested area, improved yields, and replanted coffee areas entering a period of more stable production.
The harvested Robusta area is forecast by the USDA to increase from approximately 630,200 hectares in the 2025/26 crop year to 644,000 hectares in 2026/27.
Average yields are also expected to increase from 2.90 to 2.93 metric tons per hectare.
Another notable factor is that coffee areas replanted under the 2021–2023 coffee replanting program are beginning to enter a period of stable production.
This could help increase total output without necessarily requiring a significant expansion of Vietnam's overall coffee-growing area.
How Large Is Vietnam's Coffee-Growing Area in 2026?
According to the USDA, Vietnam's total coffee-growing area is currently around 730,000 hectares.
Robusta continues to account for the majority of the country's coffee production area.
However, Vietnam's coffee sector is undergoing changes in farming models. In some areas, farmers are moving from coffee monoculture to intercropping coffee with durian, avocado, macadamia, or pepper in order to diversify income and reduce risks associated with price fluctuations.
This is an important factor to consider when evaluating actual coffee production.
The total coffee-growing area reported on paper does not necessarily mean that every hectare is devoted entirely to coffee production.
How Will Weather Affect the Vietnam Coffee Season 2026?
Weather is a critical variable for the Vietnam coffee season 2026.
Vietnamese Robusta coffee is concentrated mainly in the Central Highlands, where production depends heavily on rainfall, irrigation water availability, and temperature patterns.
According to the USDA, rainfall in several major coffee-producing provinces in the Central Highlands, including Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Kon Tum, Dak Nong, and Lam Dong, was below normal during January–March 2026.
The USDA also noted that the potential influence of El Niño could create hotter and drier conditions in parts of Southeast Asia, potentially affecting coffee yields and production.
However, caution is needed when using El Niño alone to predict actual production. Weather conditions throughout the remainder of the crop season will need to be closely monitored.
How Will the 2026 Coffee Season Affect Coffee Prices?
This is perhaps the issue of greatest interest to farmers, traders, roasters, and coffee businesses.
In general, when the market expects new supplies to increase, downward pressure on prices may emerge.
This was reflected in market developments in early October 2026.
Vietnam entered the new crop year on October 1, but new-crop supplies did not increase sharply immediately. Traders expected significant volumes of new coffee to become available from November onward.
Therefore, the market may experience two major stages:
October: the market remains influenced by remaining old-crop stocks and expectations for the new crop.
November–December: new-crop supplies gradually increase, potentially creating clearer downward pressure if actual production is close to the forecast.
However, coffee prices do not depend solely on Vietnam's production.
Key Factors Determining Coffee Prices in the 2026/27 Crop Year
1. Vietnam's Robusta Production
If actual production reaches close to the USDA forecast of 31.4 million bags, Robusta supplies could be relatively abundant.
This could place pressure on prices if demand does not increase at a similar pace.
2. Brazil's Coffee Production
Brazil is also a major factor in the global coffee market.
The USDA forecasts Brazil's coffee production for the 2026/27 crop year at 71.9 million bags, representing a significant increase from the previous crop year. Global coffee production is forecast at approximately 189.7 million bags.
Higher global supply could put downward pressure on coffee prices.
3. Indonesia
Indonesia is another important source of Robusta coffee.
The USDA forecasts Indonesia's coffee production for the 2026/27 crop year to decline by approximately 1 million bags to 11.4 million bags, with Robusta production falling to around 10 million bags.
If Indonesia's production declines while Vietnam's increases, the global Robusta supply balance could shift noticeably.
4. Global Coffee Demand
An increase in production does not necessarily mean that prices will fall sharply.
If global coffee consumption grows quickly, additional supply could be absorbed by the market.
This is why analyzing the Vietnam coffee season 2026 requires consideration of both supply and demand.
Vietnam Coffee Export Forecast for the 2026/27 Crop Year
Production is not the only factor expected to increase; coffee exports are also forecast to rise.
According to the USDA, Vietnam's coffee exports in the 2026/27 crop year could reach approximately:
28.95 million 60-kg bags, equivalent to nearly 1.74 million metric tons.
Green coffee bean exports are forecast at approximately 25.4 million bags, up from 25.1 million bags estimated for the 2025/26 crop year.
The USDA expects stronger supplies and diversified international demand to support Vietnam's exports.
Vietnam's major export markets are also expanding. During the first half of the 2025/26 crop year, exports to Germany increased 46%, Italy 31%, the United States 37%, Spain 22%, Russia 35%, and Japan 19% year over year. Several Asian markets, including India, Cambodia, Thailand, and China, also recorded strong growth.
Vietnam Coffee Season 2026 and the Trend Toward Value-Added Processing
One particularly important aspect of the 2026 coffee season is not only green coffee production but also the growing trend toward coffee processing.
The USDA forecasts Vietnam's exports of roasted and soluble coffee in the 2026/27 crop year at approximately 3.55 million 60-kg bag equivalents, higher than the estimated 3.4 million bags in the previous crop year.
This indicates that Vietnam's coffee industry is gradually moving from the model of:
growing → harvesting → exporting green coffee
toward:
growing → processing → roasting/soluble coffee production → brand building → exporting higher-value products.
This is an important direction if Vietnam wants to reduce its dependence on fluctuations in global green coffee prices.
Does the EUDR Affect Vietnam's 2026 Coffee Season?
Yes, and this is one of the most important issues surrounding the 2026/27 crop year.
The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is scheduled to officially apply from December 30, 2026, with specific regulatory exceptions for micro and small enterprises.
For Vietnamese coffee, the EUDR makes traceability of coffee-growing areas increasingly important.
Businesses exporting to the EU will need to pay greater attention to:
- the origin of coffee-growing areas;
- geolocation data for production areas;
- production records;
- land legality;
- the supply chain;
- the ability to trace individual coffee lots.
The USDA notes that Vietnam is strengthening its traceability systems and implementing measures to meet EUDR requirements. Approximately 40% of Vietnam's coffee-growing area has been reported by the USDA as meeting certain sustainability standards or certifications, including Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, 4C, and UTZ.
Therefore, the Vietnam coffee season 2026 is not only about production volume but increasingly about quality and traceability.
Is Vietnam's 2026 Coffee Season a Record-Breaking Harvest?
In terms of projected production, the 2026/27 crop year appears relatively positive.
The USDA forecasts:
- Total production: 32.5 million bags
- Robusta: 31.4 million bags
- Arabica: 1.1 million bags
- Total exports: 28.95 million bags
- Green coffee exports: 25.4 million bags
- Domestic consumption: 5 million bags
However, it is still necessary to be cautious about calling this a “bumper crop.”
High production does not necessarily guarantee high profits for coffee farmers.
Fertilizer, fuel, and labor costs are also increasing. The USDA reports that fertilizer and fuel costs increased by approximately 30%, while labor costs increased by around 33% compared with the previous year in some surveyed areas.
Therefore, the important question is not only:
“How many tons of coffee were harvested?”
but also:
“How much can farmers sell each kilogram for, and how much profit remains?”
What Should Coffee Farmers Pay Attention to During the 2026 Season?
During the new crop season, quality management may be just as important as increasing yields.
Harvest at the Right Level of Ripeness
Farmers should not pursue higher volumes by harvesting too many green cherries.
For Robusta coffee covered by the Buon Ma Thuot geographical indication, current regulations require multiple harvesting rounds and the selection of cherries with at least two-thirds of the fruit skin showing ripeness.
Focus on Post-Harvest Processing
After harvesting, coffee cherries need to be processed appropriately to reduce the risk of unwanted fermentation, mold, and quality deterioration.
Manage Water Resources
Water availability is an important issue in the Central Highlands, particularly during periods of dry weather.
Monitor Prices – But Do Not Look Only at Domestic Prices
Vietnam coffee prices are influenced by:
London Robusta futures + USD/VND exchange rates + global supply and demand + inventories + Brazil's production + Indonesia's production + Vietnam's production.
Therefore, monitoring the international market can help farmers and coffee businesses make better-informed decisions.
What Opportunities Does the Vietnam Coffee Season 2026 Create for S54 Coffee?
For Vietnamese coffee brands such as S54 Coffee, the 2026 coffee season creates an opportunity to build content and brand identity around domestic coffee origins.
This is particularly relevant for products such as 100% natural-roasted Robusta coffee beans, where the story of the coffee season can become an important part of helping customers understand the product and its raw materials.
Instead of simply communicating:
“Natural-roasted Robusta coffee”
a brand can tell the story of:
Growing region → harvest season → ripe cherries → processing → green beans → roasting → packaging → brewing into a cup of coffee.
This type of content can help strengthen E-E-A-T and topical authority because it combines useful knowledge with a product story connected to real coffee origins and production.
For the S54 Coffee website, I recommend building a content cluster around:
“Vietnamese Robusta Coffee”
with the article “Vietnam Coffee Season 2026” serving as a seasonal knowledge article, then linking internally to articles about Dak Lak coffee, Robusta coffee, pure coffee, coffee prices, and natural-roasted coffee beans.
Conclusion: What Makes the Vietnam Coffee Season 2026 Important?
Vietnam's 2026 coffee season officially entered the new 2026/27 crop year in October 2026. However, new-crop supplies are not expected to flood the market immediately during the first days of the season and are expected to increase more significantly from November onward.
According to the USDA, Vietnam's 2026/27 coffee production could reach 32.5 million bags, with Robusta accounting for 31.4 million bags. Production is expected to increase due to a larger harvested area and improved yields, as well as replanted coffee areas beginning to enter a more stable production phase.
Export prospects are also relatively positive, with the USDA forecasting Vietnam's coffee exports for the 2026/27 crop year at approximately 28.95 million bags, including around 25.4 million bags of green coffee.
However, increasing supply could also put pressure on prices, particularly as Brazil is expected to have a large crop and global Robusta supply is projected to improve.
Therefore, the story of Vietnam's coffee industry during the 2026 season is no longer simply about “how much coffee is produced.” It is increasingly about “how good is the coffee, how traceable is it, and how much value can be generated from each kilogram of coffee?”
Frequently Asked Questions About the Vietnam Coffee Season 2026
When does the Vietnam coffee season 2026 begin?
Vietnam's 2026/27 coffee crop year begins in October 2026. However, the volume of new coffee entering the market is expected to increase more noticeably from November as harvesting reaches its peak period.
What months are coffee harvested in Vietnam?
The timing varies depending on the region and coffee variety. Robusta coffee in the Central Highlands is generally harvested from around October through January of the following year, with many areas reaching peak harvesting during November–December.
How much coffee is Vietnam expected to produce in the 2026/27 crop year?
The USDA forecasts total production at 32.5 million 60-kg bags, equivalent to approximately 1.95 million metric tons, including 31.4 million bags of Robusta and 1.1 million bags of Arabica.
Will Vietnam's Robusta production increase in 2026?
Yes. The USDA forecasts Robusta production at 31.4 million bags in the 2026/27 crop year, up from 30.5 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year.
Will the new coffee season cause prices to fall?
An increase in new-crop supply could create downward pressure on prices, but it is not possible to conclude that prices will definitely decline. Prices also depend on production in Brazil and Indonesia, global demand, inventories, exchange rates, and weather conditions.
When will significant volumes of new-crop coffee enter the market in 2026?
Although the new crop year begins in October, significant volumes of new-crop coffee are expected to enter the market from November 2026 as harvesting activity accelerates.
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